“Two experts on Washington’s electric power industry say South Whidbey’s electricity consumers probably will not see a California-style rolling blackout this summer, nor will they ever see a new nuclear power plant built in the state.These predictions came from Puget Sound Energy’s Karl Kirn and state energy specialist Tony Usibelli during the Island District Economic Development Corporation’s quarterly breakfast Friday. Invited to the breakfast to update EDC members on the near and distant future of the state’s power supply, the two speakers were better able to tell the approximately 50 attendees at the Useless Bay Golf and Country Club more about what will not happen than what will happen during the current power crisis. Usibelli, who is an adjunct faculty member at Evergreen State College and works through the state’s Office of Trade and Economic Development, said that even though a drought is cutting into hydroelectric power generation, the energy crisis is not as bad here as it is in California. That state is expected, he said, to suffer numerous blackouts as the summer heat forces the state’s residents to use more and more power for air conditioners. Washington, he said, is not presently in the same boat.This summer, the likelihood of blackouts is small, Usibelli said.However, rolling blackouts are almost certain if the statewide drought continues, as are increased electric rates. Electricity prices at the wholesale level have skyrocketed during the past year, Usibelli said, up from $20 a megawatt hour last year to $125 as of last week. At one point a few months ago, electricity sold for as high as $3,000 a megawatt hour. The increased wholesale prices are already hitting rate payers in other parts of the state, such as Tacoma, where electric customers have seen their rates jump 58 percent and are bracing for more increases this summer. PSE cannot increase its electric rates until next year due to a regulatory agreement with the state.All of this, Usibelli said, is pushing both big energy companies and consumers to use energy more wisely. For more than five years, the nation has been increasing its energy usage in all areas, from electricity to gasoline, coal, and natural gas. That is a big change, Usibelli said, from the conservation push the nation undertook from the mid-1970s through the 1980s. Because the energy supply is tightening, he said, gasoline, propane, natural gas, and electric prices probably will never drop back to what they were a year ago – a situation he said will force more conservation.Taking his turn in front of the crowd, Karl Kirn tried to reassure his audience that PSE customers, like those on South Whidbey, will not suffer under the same sorts of rate increases Tacoma and Seattle residents have. He said PSE’s long term electricity purchase contracts with the Bonneville Power Administration and other big power suppliers should keep the price the utility pays for electricity stable through 2005. That is the year the first of those 15- to 50-year contracts expires.Even so, those contracts don’t guarantee that consumer prices will remain unchanged, nor does it mean that there will not be more surprises in how much power is available in the future.This has been the most exciting couple of years I’ve had, Kirn said.Kirn said future increases in the state’s power production will come with the construction of natural-gas fired power plants, several of which are either already under construction or are in the process of being permitted. New nuclear power plants, which are part of President George W. Bush’s proposed energy policy, will probably never be built within the state’s borders, Kirn said, because public opposition within the state is too great.Both Kirn and Usibelli urged their audience to promote energy conservation, since that is the fastest way to keep more power available. “