‘Nationalized’ election turning Island County from red to blue

Published 1:00 pm Wednesday, December 20, 2006

“We’re not going to let it happen again,” Aurdal added quickly. “We will make every effort to prevent this from happening again.”

In the Nov. 7 election, Democrats swept to power in Congress and here in Island County, as well, winning every contested seat up for grabs in county government except for the office of sheriff.

Democrats now own exactly half of the elected positions in Island County, long considered a bastion of Republican control.

How did Democrats do it?

An extensive analysis of precinct voting patterns by The Record, as well as interviews with party leaders, candidates and voters, indicate that several major factors led to the blue wave that swept Island County on Nov. 7.

Angry voters energized

While officials from both parties said they have not yet reviewed precinct vote tallies and held debriefings on the election — that will happen for both Island County Democrats and Republicans in early January as new leaders take the helm of both parties — both sides say voters across Whidbey and Camano islands were motivated by national concerns.

But according to a review of precinct vote tallies, turnout in Republican-leaning precincts on north Whidbey and in Oak Harbor was far below the drop-off in central, South End and Camano Island precincts that have traditionally leaned left in past presidential elections.

While the turnout across the county was markedly lower than the presidential election in 2004, where turnout surpassed 90 percent, the drop-off was lower in precincts outside north Whidbey and Oak Harbor.

While countywide turnout was 59.7 percent, turnout in many north end precincts dropped between 40 to 60 points from the turnout rate in 2004.

Island County Auditor Suzanne Sinclair said she noticed during the canvas board’s review of the ballots that many were voting a straight ticket — and it wasn’t for the Republicans.

“There were higher number than I remember being usual that were completely marked with one party, and predominantly that party was Democratic,” Sinclair said.

She also noted that many voters had written anti-GOP messages on their ballots: another sign of unhappiness with the party in control in Washington.

In her own race for office, Sinclair said she has used the number of votes in her uncontested race as an overall check of who went to the polls. In the past two elections, she had done fairly well.

This time, however, in another uncontested race — Democrat Sharon Franzen’s re-election bid for county clerk — picked up more than 700 votes above Sinclair’s total.

“I’m truly not trying to sound self-serving, but that was unusual. What that says to me is there was a lot of people out there who did not want to vote for Republicans.”

“I think what you’re seeing in this election is a trickle down. The feeling for the Republicans at the national level trickled down to the local level,” Sinclair said.

It’s a view she’s heard in conversations with other auditors from across the state.

“I really think that you saw the anger at the national Republican party was right down to the local level,” she said.

A look at votes in the precincts

The Record’s review of votes at the precinct level also show Democrats were competitive on the home turf of Republicans: deep in Oak Harbor’s historic downtown and its neighborhoods to the north.

And in places that could be counted on the vote heavily in favor of Republicans – the tightly packed military housing areas south of Naval Air Station Whidbey Island – turnout was bad to dismal. Just 10 percent of voters who live in the military neighborhoods above the city’s signature landmark, Oak Harbor, cast ballots in the election.

Not as bad, but still terrible: turnout in Ault Precinct, the expansive precinct just south of the Navy base’s Ault Field, where only 27 percent of voters cast ballots.

Indeed, the 2006 election was notable not only for the large numbers of voters who cast ballots for Democratic candidates, but also for the numbers of voters who did not cast ballots in the usually reliable north end of Whidbey and Oak Harbor.

It went beyond just voters, however.

Margarethe Cammermeyer, outgoing chairwoman of the Island County Democrat’s Central Committee, said she had heard from poll watchers that even Republicans who could usually be counted on to observe at the polls did not show up.

“I did not hear any of the poll watchers say there were any Republicans doing observations,” she said.

Taking the battle to the north

Democrats also launched new get-out-the-message efforts in Oak Harbor, putting bodies in doorways to talk up all of the Island County candidates — instead of the traditional flesh press for a single candidate.

“We had regional volunteer coordinators in the north, middle and south that actually set up weekends where they did doorbelling for all of the candidates,” Cammermeyer said.

“And so what we were focusing on was local races, local candidates, and supporting all of the candidates — rather that having each candidate having to get volunteers and doing it independently.

“It really became a community effort on behalf of all the candidates. It got people motivated,” Cammermeyer said.

Island County Democrats also ran the circuit, hosting meet-the-candidate socials every weekend in towns throughout the county. Cammermeyer said it was good for the candidates to get out and meet voters, and for campaign workers to see their candidates working hard for the vote.

“It energized the volunteers,” she said.

On Camano Island, Cammermeyer said Dean’s campaign took the lead.

“They worked the same process in terms of getting volunteers for all of the candidates; it was his campaign that took the lead.

“He had Camano in locked up in terms of volunteers,” she said. “He ran his race as though he was running for Congress.”

Turnout key in marque match-up

How big was turnout a factor?

In one race at least, a greater GOP turnout would have made a difference.

In the marque match-up for Island County prosecutor, Republican Steve Selby campaigned on traditional GOP themes, including the character issue and his tough-on-crime stance. Democrat incumbent Greg Banks, however, ran a campaign largely on his experience and management skills, although he spent much of the race responding to Selby’s attacks on his record.

Banks won the race by a 1,267-vote margin, winning with 52 percent of the vote.

But if turnout in just five far-north Whidbey precincts, and 17 Oak Harbor area precincts, had matched the countywide turnout rate of 59 percent, Selby would have won the race for prosecutor by 200 votes.

Selby picked up his strongest support on the west end of Oak Harbor, where he overwhelmingly took the Hastie Lake precinct (with 73 percent of the vote), Fort Nugent (67 percent), Swantown (68 percent).

He also had rock solid support in the Oak Harbor 3 Precinct (E Whidbey Avenue north to Fifth Avenue, between NE Midway Boulevard and NE Regatta Drive), where Selby pulled in 70 percent of the vote, and in Oak Harbor Precinct 12 (west of Highway 20 and south of W Whidbey Avenue to Sixth Avenue SW), where he won 69 percent of the vote.

Banks, however, won the race by winning seven out of nine Central Whidbey precincts, seven out of 10 Camano precincts, and by racking up big numbers on the South End.

Banks was not surprised by his strong showing on South Whidbey, where he won every precinct and took eight precincts with 70 percent or more of the vote.

“I live on South Whidbey and that’s where I have a lot more connections to the community,” Banks said. “If you look at the partisan aspect of it, I think north Whidbey tends to be more Republican.

“I think the north Whidbey newspaper showed a definite bias,” Banks said, adding that he thought newspaper coverage did have some impact on the race.

“I’ve lived on South Whidbey since 1994. I’ve been real involved, a lot of people know me and know what I’m about. I guess that helps,” he said.

Blue county, red county

Whidbey Island has long been known for its geographic split between the political parties; Oak Harbor, with its large population of people in uniform and military retires, votes Republican. The rest of the island, from approximately Penn Cove south, votes Democratic.

The same north-south, Republican-Democrat split exists on Camano Island. From Utsalady Point south to Mountain View Beach, voters on Camano have sided in past elections with GOP candidates, while Democratic candidates have fared better in the area near Point Susan Beach.

“The trend the has always been there,” said county auditor Sinclair. “I would have to say it’s become pronounced in the last seven years.”

Population growth on the South End has been one factor in the South End’s increasing tilt toward Democrats.

Sinclair pointed to former county commissioner Bill Thorn of Camano Island, who was elected county commissioner on the Democratic ticket back in 1997.

“He carried the South Whidbey area, but it wasn’t by a lot,” she said.

It now appears that the South End’s long-standing preference for liberal candidates is growing,t oo.

“It’s been there, I think it’s become more pronounced as time has gone on,” Sinclair said.

While Camano Island appears more evenly divided between the two major parties, Sinclair said Camano’s desire for a commissioner from Camano overrode party preference for some voters.

“They were motivated to turn out in way that the Republicans perhaps were not,” she said.

Camano figures big in election

Camano Island came through in a big way for Democrats this election, and the island has turned largely blue from the voting preferences seen in the past.

In the federal races, U.S. Rep. Rick Larsen (D-2nd District) won every district on Camano. U.S. Sen. Maria Cantwell won all precincts except Livingston Bay, Maple Grove and Triangle Cove.

Linda Riffe, the Democrat seeking another term as treasurer, also won all precincts on Camano.

But Republican Barbara Bailey, running for re-election to her 10th District, Position 2 seat, did well on Camano, winning all precincts except Countryclub and Point Allen.

Camano has a history as a largely “red” island. Voters on Camano have largely voted Republican in the past two presidential elections.

George W. Bush carried won eight of 10 precincts in the last presidential election. Bush won seven of 10 precincts in the 2000 election, and polled dead even with Al Gore in the Utsalady precinct, where both candidates got 358 votes.

Just two precincts — Mabana and Camano – went to the Democratic side in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections.

In this year’s race for prosecuting attorney, however, Banks won seven of 10 precincts.

Selby won three precincts on the north end of Camano; Livingston Bay, Maple Grove and Triangle Cove. Maple Cove was the Republican’s strongest precinct on Camano in the past two presidential elections.

Overall, Camano Island had been turning more red since the 2000 election; all precincts voted in larger numbers for the GOP ticket in 2004 than 2000. Turnout also increased in every precinct except Madrona and Utsalady between 2000 and 2004.

How else to define the change?

“Landslide” victories are typically defined as one candidate having a margin of victory of 20 percents over an opponent.

In the November 2006 election for Island County Commissioner, Democrat Dean won every precinct, and all but one precinct by more than 20 percent of the vote.

Dean also won by more than 30 percent of the vote in half of the districts on Camano Island; winning 70 percent or more of the vote in the Countryclub and Point Allen precincts.

In Maple Cove, traditionally the strongest GOP precinct on Camano, Dean, a Camano Island resident, won 59 percent of the vote.

Larry Kahn, the outgoing Democrat precinct committee officer in Camano Island’s Maple Grove precinct, said it appeared that the swing to the middle in Island County reflected the results noted in the rest of the country.

“The John Dean vote was a good example of this. Middle of the road Demos, such as yours truly, hope the new bunch in Washington take advantage of this opportunity to eradicate graft, earmarks, and make an example of how to conduct progressive, non-partisan cooperation,” Kahn added.

Conventional wisdom was ignored

Dean said when he started his campaign, people told him that “conventional wisdom” meant he should focus on areas known to vote for liberals.

The message: “Since you’re running as a Democrat, don’t spend any time in Oak Harbor,” Dean recalled.

“We threw that out early on,” he said.

He heard the same concerns from voters while doorbelling in Oak Harbor that he did in Central Whidbey, the South End and Camano.

“We ran across a lot of people who were real anxious to talk to us. They didn’t express themselves as Democrat or Republican. The messages we were getting from people were identical,” he said.

Voters said they weren’t getting the services they needed from government, Dean said, and the lack of attention to people’s issues stretched from the local to national level.

“I almost have to throw out all this ‘conventional wisdom,’” Dean said. “It’s all about responding to people.”

“I think what the difference in my race wasn’t so much name recognition. I was probably the new guy who wasn’t talking party politics,” he said.

As an example, Dean told voters who supported I-933 to vote for Commissioner Bill Byrd.

“I was talking pretty straight to people. I think that’s what we need in party politics right now,” Dean said.

Other races not so clear cut

In the race for county assessor, precinct results show a more mixed bag for Republican candidate Don Mason, though was outspent only by Dean in this year’s county races.

While Mason picked up the most votes in all North Whidbey precincts, he also failed to sweep Oak Harbor’s 22 precincts, winning 18 but losing much of the historic old downtown and the neighborhoods just to the north – Oak Harbor Precinct 2 (between SE Midway Boulevard and NE Regatta Drive, north of Sixth Ave the East Whidbey Avenue), and Precinct 5 (City Beach area), Precinct 7 (East Whidbey Avenue north to Oak Hollow Mobile Park) and Precinct 10 (the area around Goldie Street and 16th Avenue).

Mattens won the majority in all nine Central Whidbey precincts, and swept the 15 South End precincts that stretch from Bush Point to Possession Point.

On Camano Island, Mattens took six traditionally Democrat-leaning precincts – Camano, Countryclub, Mabana, Madrona, Driftwood and Point Allen. Mason took Triangle Cove. Livingston Bay and Maple Grove.

In the Utsalady precinct, where Sen. Cantwell won with 53 percent of the vote in November’s election but Bailey won with 51 percent for her state House seat, Mason and Mattens drew to a dead heat: Each picked up 337 votes.

In four other precincts, the Mattens and Mason came within two votes of each other’s total.

There were other close precincts, too.

In Oak Harbor 2 and Oak Harbor 7, Mattens got two more votes than Mason (56 to 54, 146 to 144, respectively), and finished in front by one vote in Oak Harbor 10 (111 votes to 110).

A bellwether initiative

A big surprise throughout Island County was how voters felt about I-933, the “Property Fairness Initiative,” that would have required state and local governments to compensation property owners when regulations damaged the use or value of private property.

I-933 failed to win a majority in any precinct in Island County, despite its support from all three Island County commissioners, local property rights activists, the state Republican party, and former GOP candidate for governor Dino Rossi (who carried Island County with 51 percent of the vote in 2004).

“I figured it was going to lose. I wasn’t sure it was going to lose this much,” said Steve Erickson, a South End activist who fought the passage of I-933.

County Commissioner Mike Shelton said that while the No on I-933 group ran a better campaign, the initiative’s impact on zoning was probably something that had voters from both parties worried.

I-933 may have done better if it was written better, he said, and not required a retreat to pre-1996 zoning.

“If the farm bureau would have written the initiative around what they supposedly represent — which is farming and forest lands — and said if you are going to denigrate farmers’ and foresters’ ability to make a living on their property, and be requiring large buffers, then you have to compensate people, then I think it would have been a salable thing. And it might have passed,” Shelton said.

“But with the zoning thing in there… I think that’s what sunk it in most people’s minds,” he said.

Some critics, though, have said the overwhelming vote against I-933 in Island County was a sign that county commissioner’s were out of touch on the issue.

“If I believe there is a public benefit for taking someone’s property, I’m not necessarily opposed to that, but I think the cost of that should be born across a broad number of people and not individual property owners,” Shelton said.

“If the majority of the people in Island County don’t agree with that philosophy, then I guess I am out of touch,” Shelton said.

“To me, it’s simply a fairness thing,” he said.

Rufus Rose, president of the Island County Property Rights Alliance, said the alliance was still reviewing why I-933 failed.

“That will take us some time. Hopefully we will be soon able to make meaningful sense of the data and the emotions that were at play and continue to be at play with legal uses of real property,” Rose explained.

“The Growth Management Act, Steve Erickson, legitimate environmental concerns, NIMBYism, our personal deficiencies when dealing with print press, and demographics, etc. will be reviewed. When we attempt to overlay the impacts of national campaigns, the War on Terror, and public interest and participation in government we may stretch ourselves past our elastic limits,” Rose added.

“Whatever our review discloses to us one thing is clear. The ‘Yes on I-933, The Property Fairness Initiative’ Campaign did not pass. Understanding the significance of that to our culture will be important,” he said.

Vote influenced by national politics

For many, the election carried a national tone, something noted not only by both parties but in exit polls conducted by The Record across the South End on Election Day.

In exit polls, most voters raised Iraq as the central issue and many said they were voting for change.

Cammermeyer said that sentiment was noticeable as campaign workers doorbelled in Oak Harbor, and found support from people who in the past did not want their neighbors to think they were Democrats.

“As the shift in focus if you’re against the war somehow you’re unpatriotic and therefore you shouldn’t be here, I think that attitude is beginning to change, people are beginning to look a little differently at the whole political process,” Cammermeyer said.

“It’s been a tremendously meaningful year for the foundation and the continuous building of the Democratic base here, and the fact that there are Democrats that are living in the north end of the island and are becoming to become active,” she said.

“We certainly will do our debriefing and looking at what worked and what can be improved and whether or not we can build the same energy in the future, not just for the presidential election,” Cammermeyer added.

Voters don’t always follow party preference

Despite the north-south split on party affiliation, county prosecutor Banks said voters in Island County are an independent lot who don’t hesitate to split their ticket.

That view was reflected in exit polls conducted by The South Whidbey Record on Election Day. A majority of voters interviewed at polling stations in Freeland and Langley said they had voted a split ticket, while at polling stations in Bayview and Clinton, 50 percent of voters or fewer said they had crossed party lines.

“There’s a lot of party-associated people, but I think the vast majority of people in our county vote independently,” Banks said.

It was something he said he heard while doorbelling for votes.

“I heard that more than anything: ‘I vote for the person more than the party,” he said.

Even so, leaders from both parties agree that the national debate did have some influence on down-ballot races.

“I think it was one of those political nights where it was a clean sweep for the Democrat party that seemed to originate at the national level,” said commissioner Shelton, a Republican.

“I will be truthful with you; I had never believed national and state races had much of an impact on local races. This time I think it did. I think people were of a mind to throw the rascals out. And they did that,” he said.

Shelton said the Democratic majority may not last for a long period of time.

“I suppose it will depend on what kind of job the Democrats do. I still believe that in local races, generally people are less partisan than they are at the state and federal level,” Shelton said.