It’s not a matter of if, only when.

Faced with declining enrollment, the South Whidbey School District will be forced to downsize as early as the 2007/08 school year. That means some schools will close and send its students to other South Whidbey schools.

In 1999, the district had an all-time high enrollment of 2,300 students. But district officials are predicting enrollment will plummet to 1,600 in several years.

Loss of students means loss of revenue. And to combat the losses, the district hopes to tighten the overall operating budget.

Still, the situation is not as dire as the Seattle school system, which is closing at least nine schools. Even so, the configuration of South Whidbey schools will be reworked.

Exactly how local schools will be changed to deal with fewer students and fewer dollars will be determined by a committee that will eventually make its recommendations to the school board.

The advisory committee will begin studying possible scenarios for the district’s future use of facilities in July. The committee will be headed by Superintendent Bob Brown and school board member Jim Adsley, and will include 12 to 15 citizens.

Like pieces to a puzzle, there are many possible scenarios. One idea that has been floated in the past is selling Langley Middle School.

The old school is a piece of the district’s history. It was built in 1935, and South Whidbey students graduated from there until 1981 when the new high school was finished.

The middle school occupies a large piece of property close to downtown Langley, and has been eyed for possible housing.

“The middle school property is valuable and there has always been interest in it from developers,” Brown said. “A cottage development is going in adjacent to the bus parking lot behind the middle school.”

“If Langley Middle School was closed, we might consider moving grades seven and eight to the high school, sixth grade to the Intermediate School and third grade to the Primary School,” Brown said.

But he cautioned that selling the middle school is only one of many options that will be studied.

Another option is to sell the 40 acres behind the Intermediate School that was once eyed as a site for a new middle school.

Brown said another scenario might be to have only one principal for the Intermediate and Primary schools.

Currently there is a principal at the primary school for kindergarten through grades two, and a principal at the Intermediate School for grades three through five. The two schools are located next to each other on Maxwelton Road in Langley.

Other possible consolidations could include combining the district’s two alternative programs, Bayview School and the Whidbey Island Academy, into the high school.

Brown told the school board in April that it should consider selling the portables behind the high school that house Whidbey Island Academy. He has since backtracked, and is now recommending that the portables not be sold until a comprehensive study of the district’s facilities can be completed.

A program that will come under scrutiny is the four-period day at the high school.

It was implemented in 1992, and according to Brown, costs more money to run than the traditional six-period day.

The committee charged with the study will be composed of a diverse group of community members, educators and parents.

Specialists such as a demographer, a structural engineer and the school business manager will be asked to provide specific data. Parents, community and staff input will be gathered before a final recommendation is made to the board in March 2007.

Brown said he expects the committee to hold monthly meetings, including public hearings and joint meetings with the school board and the city of Langley.

“Our goal is come up with recommendations that make the best use of our classrooms and buildings. We need to cut operating costs and put the savings back into academics and programs,” Brown said.

Brown said the group will determine the most appropriate consolidation plan to maximize building capacity and minimize disruptions to students, families and staff.

He emphasized the community will play a major role in the final recommendations.

Brown, who was first a teacher, then principal at Langley High School, remembers the controversy when several small outlying schools were closed and students were brought to the new Primary School that was opened in 1968.

Brown remembers a community meeting where the gymnasium at the middle school was filled with people arguing and shouting about closing the Midvale School and having to send their kids to Langley to the new Primary School.

“It caused quite a stir. People didn’t want to send their kids to school in Langley,” he said.

The decision to form a facilities study team came as the district considers its constantly declining budget.

Fewer students means less money from the state.

The district reached a peak enrollment of 2,300 students in 1999/2000 school year. And district officials are basing next year’s budget on 1,850 students.

Enrollment is expect to drop further.

“We expect it to level off at 1,600 students by 2009/10 school year. That’s a dramatic decrease,” Brown said.

“The district is maintaining an infrastructure for larger-than-actual enrollments,” Brown said.

In the heyday of increasing enrollment, the district built the Intermediate School, a transportation department with space for 50 buses, and purchased 40 acres behind the intermediate school.

Brown said since he arrived two years ago things have improved.

“When I came in April 2004, the district had $2,000 in the bank they needed an advance from the county of $157,000 to cover payroll,” he said.

“Spending in each of the schools on materials and supplies was way up, too. They spent themselves into trouble,” Brown said.

In recent years, the district has done much to tighten its belt.

“The building budgets have been reduced by 25 percent,” Brown said.

Last year, 13 teachers were laid off. And this year, four paraeducators and a custodian will be laid off, and one secretarial position will be eliminated. There will be a loss of four teachers through attrition.

The estimated 2006-07 budget is $16.1 million, with a recommended fund balance of $725,000.

Officials expect to cut roughly a half million dollars from the budget.

“The total reduction required in next year’s budget is $454,219,” said Dan Poolman, business manager for the district.

Brown said the facilities study is a continuation of the district’s efforts to offer the best programs and schools for South Whidbey students while still balancing the budget and building a healthy fund balance.